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RIGEL PHARMACEUTICALS INC (RIGL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 total revenue was $57.6M, with net product sales of $46.5M; diluted EPS was $0.80, driven by strong demand across TAVALISSE ($31.0M), REZLIDHIA ($7.4M), and GAVRETO ($8.1M) .
  • Management reiterated 2025 guidance: total revenue $200–$210M, net product sales $185–$192M, and positive full-year net income; Q4 revenues benefited from ~$4.5M inventory build, implying a Q1 normalization and lower channel inventory (including ~350 TAVALISSE bottles) .
  • Commercial execution remains the core catalyst: record quarterly bottles shipped, ninth consecutive quarterly high in TAVALISSE demand, and a smooth GAVRETO transition with Q4 run-rate above prior 2023 levels under previous ownership .
  • Pipeline momentum supports medium-term upside: R289 received Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations; dose escalation continues in Phase 1b LR-MDS with plan for expansion in 2025; olutasidenib advancing via MD Anderson and CONNECT in AML/MDS/glioma .
  • S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable; as a result, explicit beat/miss analysis vs Street is not provided. Inventory-driven Q4 uplift and 2025 guide trajectory are the key near-term narrative drivers .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Q4 demand and net product sales across portfolio; TAVALISSE bottles shipped reached 2,855, with strong new patient starts and no price increases in Q4 (“all volume”) .
  • GAVRETO transition executed smoothly—$8.1M Q4 net product sales, above the prior owner’s 2023 annual run-rate, and increasing mix through direct accounts into October; management highlighted cross-functional execution .
  • Profitability milestone and strengthened balance sheet: Q4 net income $14.3M; 2024 full-year net income $17.5M; cash reached $77.3M at year-end .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 benefited from ~$4.5M inventory build, including ~$3.0M in TAVALISSE channel inventory; management expects Q1 drawdown and ~350-bottle reduction in TAVALISSE distribution inventory, a near-term headwind to reported sales .
  • Total costs and expenses increased to $40.9M (vs $33.8M in Q4’23), driven by higher cost of product sales, royalties, amortization, and commercial activities; cost pressure partially offsets operating leverage .
  • Regulatory safety communication for GAVRETO via DHCP letter (Oct 2024) on infections/pneumonitis risks—clinically manageable per management, but still a watch item for prescriber behavior and dosing .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L Metrics

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$36.8 $55.3 $57.6
Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$33.5 $38.9 $46.5
Contract Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.4 $16.4 $11.1
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(1.0) $12.4 $14.3
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.06) $0.70 $0.80

Segment/Product Net Sales

Product Net Sales ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
TAVALISSE$26.4 $26.3 $31.0
REZLIDHIA$5.2 $5.5 $7.4
GAVRETO$1.9 $7.1 $8.1

Q4 YoY Growth by Product

ProductYoY Growth vs Q4 2023
TAVALISSE+21%
REZLIDHIA+92%
GAVRETON/A (commercially available from Rigel starting June 2024)

Operating Cost Context

Metric ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cost of Product Sales$2.8 $8.0 $5.8
Total Costs & Expenses$36.4 $41.3 $40.9

Commercial KPIs (Bottles Shipped)

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
TAVALISSE – Bottles shipped to patients/clinics2,672 2,797 2,855
TAVALISSE – Change in distributor channel bottles+50 −4 +317
REZLIDHIA – Bottles shipped to patients/clinics424 444 503
REZLIDHIA – Change in distributor channel bottles−23 −15 +62
GAVRETO – Bottles shipped to patients/clinics (60ct eq.)N/A 717 874
GAVRETO – Change in distributor channel bottles (60ct eq.)+228 +35 +64

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY 2025$200–$210M (Jan 13, 2025) $200–$210M (Mar 4, 2025) Maintained
Net Product SalesFY 2025$185–$192M (Jan 13, 2025) $185–$192M (Mar 4, 2025) Maintained
Contract RevenueFY 2025$15–$18M (Jan 13, 2025) $15–$18M (Mar 4, 2025) Maintained
Net IncomeFY 2025Positive (Jan 13, 2025) Positive (Mar 4, 2025) Maintained
Channel Inventory Normalization (TAVALISSE)Q1 2025N/A~350 bottle reduction in distributor inventory Operational headwind

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Previous)Q3 2024 (Previous)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
TAVALISSE demand trajectoryRecord bottles shipped; net sales +24% YoY; building carryover and new starts Eighth consecutive quarterly record; 2,797 bottles; net sales $26.3M Ninth consecutive record; 2,855 bottles; net sales $31.0M; new patient mix higher Improving
REZLIDHIA adoption post-venetoclaxStrong growth; positioning via data and collaborations More than doubled demand YoY; net sales $5.5M Net sales $7.4M; continued focus on earlier-line post-venetoclax use Improving
GAVRETO transitionNDA transfer complete; initial stocking in late Q2 ($1.9M) First full quarter: $7.1M; mix shift toward direct accounts expected Q4 $8.1M; run-rate > 2023 previous owner; DHCP safety letter issued Oct 2024 Improving with risk-mitigation
R289 LR-MDS programDose escalation progressing; initial data expected by year-end ASH abstract initial data; split dosing added Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations; dose level 6 (500mg BID) open; efficacy signals incl. TI >24 weeks Advancing
Ex-US expansion / partnershipsPipeline trials, EHA/ASCO posters; City of Hope HCT maintenance Kissei ex-US REZLIDHIA deal ($10M upfront) Dr. Reddy’s ex-US REZLIDHIA ($4M upfront); Knight Mexico TAVALISSE approval; Kissei Korea approval Broadening

Management Commentary

  • “2024 was a transformational year…record net product sales of $144.9 million…for the first time we generated full-year net income of more than $17 million” .
  • “We’re expecting approximately $185–$192 million in net product sales for [2025]…approximately a 28% to 32% growth compared to 2024” .
  • “Q4…was aided by…inventory build…about $4.5 million of that $46.5 million” and “we expect…drawdown…in Q1 2025” .
  • “We didn’t have any price increase in Q4. So that was all volume…highest quarterly demand ever” .
  • “GAVRETO…$8.1 million…run rate above the $28 million in annual sales…under prior ownership” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance normalization: Q4 net product sales included ~$4.5M inventory build; 2025 net product sales guide ($185–$192M) implies ~30% YoY growth from normalized base .
  • TAVALISSE demand drivers: No Q4 price increase; higher mix of new patients; ninth consecutive quarterly demand high .
  • GAVRETO transition: $8.1M Q4 sales; management believes virtually all prior patients transitioned; direct account mix improving toward 50/50 .
  • R289 development: BID dosing for continuous inflammatory suppression; updated dose escalation data anticipated at ASH; Fast Track facilitates earlier regulator engagement .
  • Glioma strategy (olutasidenib): Study design details forthcoming; CONNECT Target-D arm opened for enrollment; Rigel-sponsored Phase 2 in recurrent glioma planned .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for revenue and EPS (Q4 2024 and prior two quarters) were unavailable due to data access limits; as a result, explicit beat/miss vs Street cannot be assessed at this time. Management’s disclosure indicates Q4 reported revenue was aided by channel inventory, suggesting caution when extrapolating sequential growth into Q1 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 strength was demand-led across products, but reported revenue included inventory tailwinds; expect channel normalization to temper Q1 reported sales despite underlying demand resilience .
  • 2025 guide implies ~30% YoY net product sales growth off a normalized base, supported by TAVALISSE carryover, REZLIDHIA earlier-line adoption post-venetoclax, and continued GAVRETO transition and dosing optimization .
  • R289’s regulatory momentum (Fast Track, Orphan) and encouraging TI signals in heavily pretreated LR-MDS patients create optionality for later-stage development; expansion phase initiation in 2025 is a key clinical catalyst .
  • Ex-US partnership revenues (Kissei, Grifols, Dr. Reddy’s) diversify cash flows, augmenting top line and contributing to profitability while pipeline investments scale .
  • Watch items: Q1 inventory drawdown, gross-to-net dynamics, and GAVRETO safety communications’ impact on prescriber behavior and dosing; management views risks as manageable with no Q4 demand impact reported .
  • Medium-term thesis: a profitable, commercial-stage hematology/oncology platform with multiple growth levers (portfolio expansion, ex-US royalties/milestones, pipeline catalysts) and disciplined opex control .
  • Near-term trading setup: monitor Q1 reported sales vs implied normalization, cadence of R289 data updates (ASH 2H25), and incremental ex-US/partner milestones that can supplement revenue .